Event

The human flu virus undergoes rapid evolution, which is driven by interactions with its host immune system. We describe the evolutionary dynamics by a fitness model based on two phenotypes of the virus: protein folding stability and susceptibility to human immune response. This model successfully predicts the evolution of influenza one year into the future. Thus, evolutionary analysis transcends its traditional role of reconstructing past history. This has important consequences for public health: evolutionary predictions can inform the selection of influenza vaccine strains.